XRP Soars as ETF Approval Odds Hit 95% Amid Bitcoin Buzz

XRP could be poised for a significant price surge if spot XRP ETFs capture even a fraction of the capital that has flowed into bitcoin ETF products.

Recently, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart updated the likelihood of an XRP ETF approval to 95%. This has sparked enthusiasm regarding the potential impact on XRP’s price.

XRP Price Projection if XRP ETFs Capture 35% of bitcoin ETF Inflows

If XRP ETFs manage to attract 35% of the net inflows that bitcoin ETFs have garnered since their launch in January 2024, our analysis suggests that XRP could reach nearly $30.

To provide context, bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $46.66 billion in net inflows since their inception. If XRP secures 35% of that amount, it would see approximately $16.331 billion in net inflows, significantly influencing its price.

It’s essential to note that price increases do not directly correlate with capital inflows. Traders typically apply multipliers to estimate the effect of inflows on market capitalization. Historical multipliers have reached as high as 674x.

For a conservative estimate, we utilized a more modest 100x multiplier, which provides a clearer perspective without excessive optimism. At this rate, $16.331 billion in ETF inflows would contribute $1.633 trillion to XRP’s valuation.

Currently, XRP has a market capitalization of $125.87 billion, trading at $2.13, with a circulating supply of 58.93 billion tokens. Adding $1.633 trillion to its existing market cap would elevate the total to $1.759 trillion, resulting in a projected price of approximately $29.89 per token, nearly $30, based on the current circulating supply.

Recent Developments Regarding XRP ETFs

This scenario appears increasingly plausible as expectations for XRP ETF approvals have risen. Bloomberg’s Seyffart and Balchunas recently highlighted ongoing discussions with the U.S. SEC, expressing confidence that approval is imminent.

Traders are also showing strong confidence on prediction platforms like Polymarket, where the odds of an XRP ETF approval in 2025 have surged to around 88%.

Institutional interest has also increased. As of now, in 2025, several significant entities, including Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Bitwise, have submitted applications for spot XRP ETFs, which are currently under SEC review.

Franklin Templeton’s application has garnered considerable attention. The firm submitted its proposal in March 2025, and while the SEC has delayed its decision again, this follows standard protocol. The agency has also opened a public comment period, allowing investors until late July to provide feedback on proposed rule changes.

Meanwhile, Canada has already taken steps forward. Recently, the Toronto Stock Exchange launched three spot XRP ETFs, demonstrating that the demand for regulated XRP investment products is both real and expanding.

If U.S. regulators follow Canada’s example and XRP ETFs gain even a fraction of the traction seen by bitcoin ETFs, XRP could experience one of its most significant price movements ever.