Bitcoin’s Winning Streak Ends as XRP Gains Momentum

Bitcoin’s Recent Performance and Market Reactions

Bitcoin (BTC) has halted its three-day upward trend, primarily due to profit-taking activities as investors await significant legislative developments. Meanwhile, XRP has seen a rise, driven by positive news surrounding exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and legal progress.

On June 30, attention turned to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), which includes amendments related to cryptocurrency taxation. Senator Cynthia Lummis highlighted the double taxation faced by miners and stakers, stating, “For years, miners and stakers have been taxed TWICE. Once when they receive block rewards, and again when they sell it. It’s time to stop this unfair tax treatment and ensure America is the world’s Bitcoin and Crypto Superpower.”

Reducing the tax burden on cryptocurrencies could enhance BTC adoption in the United States, especially as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to absorb supply. Market intelligence platform Santiment reported that BlackRock is acquiring BTC at a rate surpassing the network’s mining capacity, with 12,354 BTC purchased in just five days, while only 450 BTC are mined daily. This imbalance is creating upward pressure on prices.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Sees Notable Trends

The demand for US BTC-spot ETFs has surged, fueled by expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and a reduction in global trade tensions. As of June 30, Farside Investors noted significant inflow trends, including a $10.2 million net outflow from the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

With IBIT’s flow data still pending, total outflows from US BTC-spot ETFs reached $10.2 million. The longest inflow streak for the spot ETF market stands at 19 consecutive days, from May 13 to June 10, 2024. To maintain the overall inflow trend, IBIT will need to record another inflow session.

BTC Price Forecast: Influencing Factors and Scenarios

On June 30, BTC experienced a decline of 1.09%, reversing a previous gain of 0.94% and closing at $107,167. The short-term price direction will be influenced by several critical factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, trade developments, legislative updates, and ETF inflows.

Potential Market Scenarios

• Bearish Outlook: If global trade tensions ease, legislative progress stalls, the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, and ETF outflows continue, BTC could drop towards its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), potentially approaching the $100,000 mark.

• Bullish Outlook: Conversely, if global trade conflicts escalate, bipartisan support for crypto legislation emerges, the Fed signals a dovish approach, and ETF inflows increase, BTC may aim to retest its all-time high of $111,917.

In summary, the cryptocurrency market remains dynamic, with various factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory while XRP capitalizes on favorable developments.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.