Analyst Claims ‘Real’ Crypto Bull Run is Just Starting—Here’s Why!
Crypto Markets Entering a New Bull Run, Says Analyst
The Dawn of a Genuine Bull Market
In a recent livestream on X, independent market analyst Kevin, known as @Kev_Capital_TA, asserted that the cryptocurrency market is just beginning what he terms “the real bull run.” He highlighted a mix of technical indicators, macroeconomic trends, and inter-market relationships that he believes traders have yet to fully recognize.
Tether Dominance as a Key Indicator
Kevin focused on Tether dominance (USDT.D), which represents the proportion of the crypto market cap held in this dollar-pegged stablecoin. He presented two long-term logarithmic charts of USDT.D, illustrating an initial sharp decline followed by what he characterized as a “rising channel slash bear flag.”
According to his analysis, both the current market and the 2024 structure suggest a measured-move target of 3.70 percent. He emphasized that achieving this level is crucial for any sustainable rally in risk assets. “The next few weeks will hinge on one critical concept: follow through,” he stated.
Analyzing the Macro Landscape
Kevin also overlaid a macro descending triangle on a two-week USDT.D chart dating back to March 2020. He noted that each time the two-week Stochastic RSI crossed downward, Tether dominance dropped sharply, aligning with periods of strength in Bitcoin and altcoins. The latest downward cross again targets the 3.70 percent mark. If this support level fails, Kevin warned that a deeper decline toward “the two-percent handle” could signify a peak bull market phase, although he advised against making long-term predictions.
Bitcoin’s Hash-Ribbon Indicator and Market Conditions
The discussion then shifted to Bitcoin’s hash-ribbon indicator, which monitors miner capitulation and recovery. Historically, weekly “buy” signals from this indicator have preceded significant price increases of 40 to 100 percent within nine weeks, boasting a “100 percent hit rate” over eight years of back-testing.
Kevin connected this on-chain data to broader macroeconomic conditions. He referenced the real-time inflation metric “Truthflation,” which currently sits at 1.66 percent—below the Federal Reserve’s nominal target of 2 percent—and noted declining import prices. He argued that these factors heighten the likelihood of a shift toward easier monetary policy. “If Truthflation remains under 2 percent, easing is inevitable,” he predicted, suggesting that markets will begin to anticipate an end to quantitative tightening before any official announcements.
Altcoin Capital Rotation: A Bullish Signal
The second pillar of Kevin’s bullish outlook is the capital rotation into altcoins. He pointed out that Ethereum’s market-share chart has been consolidating at lows from 2019-2020, with monthly MACD, Stochastic RSI, and Market Cipher indicators all showing upward momentum. Early investments in ETH-related assets like Chainlink and Uniswap have reportedly risen by 60 percent from their accumulation zones, which Kevin framed as the initial stages of a larger rally. He cautioned viewers against waiting for central-bank confirmations: “Don’t be the one sitting on the sidelines waiting for Powell to announce the end of QT.”
Bitcoin’s Resistance Levels
When discussing Bitcoin, Kevin acknowledged that the cryptocurrency still faces significant resistance. He noted that the price must surpass the March record, break through the $112,000–$116,000 range, and ultimately clear $120,000 to pave the way for a potential rise to $140,000–$150,000. Similarly, the “total three” index, which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum, needs to close above $877 billion, along with overcoming a resistance band that has restricted rallies five times since February. Only then, he argued, would a new all-time high for the broader altcoin market become feasible.
The Need for Confirmation
Despite his optimistic outlook, Kevin reiterated that confidence without confirmation is premature. “We need to see genuine price action,” he remarked, pointing out that Bitcoin’s daily RSI has not reached the euphoric 90-plus zone since 2017. He described the post-March market behavior as “down-trending subpar price action” and insisted that any claims of a full market cycle peak must await several days of decisive follow-through.
Time-Sensitive Opportunities Ahead
In conclusion, Kevin emphasized the urgency of the current market opportunity. With the halving event behind us and the traditional four-year cycle seemingly entering its final phase, he stated, “You have five to six months of what should be exceptional price action.” The outcome of this cycle, he believes, will depend on how the Federal Reserve’s policy changes interact with the crypto market’s ability to anticipate them.
For now, Kevin’s strategy is clear: keep an eye on Tether dominance for a potential drop to 3.70 percent, watch for consecutive hash-ribbon buy signals, and demand momentum “follow through” above the identified technical barriers. If these conditions are met, he argues, the rally many traders thought was already in motion will reveal itself as merely the prelude to “the real bull run.”
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $111,250.
