Bitcoin Halving Cycle: SC Predicts Price Surge in 2025, No Harm Done
Standard Chartered Predicts bitcoin Surge to $200,000 by Year-End
Global financial institution Standard Chartered has expressed optimism regarding bitcoin‘s performance for the remainder of the year, highlighting a rise in corporate treasury investments and robust inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
bitcoin Price Forecast: New Heights Ahead
According to Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, bitcoin (BTC) is projected to reach unprecedented levels of $135,000 by the close of Q3, with expectations to surpass $200,000 by year-end. Kendrick shared these insights in a recent report distributed to Cointelegraph.
He noted that the cryptocurrency has transitioned beyond the previous trend where prices typically declined 18 months following a “halving” event. This shift suggests that the anticipated price drops in September or October 2025, which are often associated with halving cycles, may not occur this time.
The End of the Halving Cycle Trend
In his analysis, Kendrick examined the implications of the bitcoin halving cycle, a phenomenon that occurs approximately every four years and reduces the mining reward by half. Historically, these halving events have been correlated with significant price increases followed by corrections.
While past halvings in 2016 and 2020 resulted in price declines about 18 months later, Kendrick believes that the upcoming halving in April 2024 will yield different results. He attributes this to new market dynamics, including strong ETF and corporate buying, which were not present in earlier cycles.
ETF Flows and Corporate Buying: Key Drivers
Kendrick emphasized that the anticipated price rally will be bolstered by ongoing strong demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, which were absent in previous cycles. However, he also cautioned that price fluctuations could occur in late Q3 and early Q4 due to lingering concerns about historical correction patterns.
Recent Trends in bitcoin ETF Flows
Kendrick’s insights come at a time when bitcoin ETF flows have recently turned negative after a streak of 15 consecutive days of inflows. Data from SoSoValue indicates that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling $342.3 million, marking the first decline since June 6. These outflows represented 7% of the total $4.8 billion that had flowed into ETFs during the previous 15 days.
Despite this recent downturn, Kendrick reported that the combined inflows from bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases reached 245,000 BTC in Q2. He anticipates that this figure will be surpassed in both Q3 and Q4, reinforcing the bank’s bullish outlook on bitcoin‘s future.
